Aplicação de Modelagem Estocástica para a Previsão da Precipitação em Diferentes Regiões na Amazônia

Glayson Francisco Bezerra das Chagas, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva, Paulo Sérgio Lúcio

Abstract


Neste estudo, foram identificadas com base nas propriedades dos modelos de séries temporais a chuva acumulada mensalmente para três regiões na Amazônia (setentrional, oriental e meridional). Foram utilizados modelos de séries temporais Auto-Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis (ARIMA) e Holt-Winters (HW). A autocorrelation function (ACF) e a partial autocorrelation function (PACF) das séries selecionadas revelaram o comportamento sazonal dos acumulados de chuvas mensais. O modelo ARIMA multiplicativo [ARIMA(p,d,q) x (P,D,Q)12] foi montado em todas as séries temporais e em todas foi observado uma componente sazonal marcante, além do que, por não terem sido atendidos os pressupostos de variância constante e normalidade dos dados, foi aplicado nas séries originais a transformação Box-Cox. Através das medidas de qualidade dos ajustes dos modelos pelo método Box-Jenkins, temos que o modelo ARIMA (1,1,1) x (1,1,1)12 evidenciou como melhor ajuste aos dados analisados nesta pesquisa, sendo o que apresentou menores valores para os critérios de informação AIC.

Keywords


Box-Jenkins; Holt-Winters; Floresta

References


Arraut, J.R. & Satyamurty, P. 2009. Precipitation and water vapor

transport in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on the

South American region. Journal of Applied Meteorology

and Climatology, 48(9): 1902-1912.

Arraut, J.R.; Nobre, C.; Barbosa, H.M.J.; Obregon, G. & Marengo,

J.A. 2012. Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale

Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to

Subtropical Rainfall in South America. Journal of Climate,

(2): 543-556.

Asner, G.P.; Townsend, A.R. & Braswell, B.H. 2000. Satellite observation

of El Niño effects on Amazon forest phenology

and productivity. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(7):

–984.

Baker, I.T.; Prihodko, L.; Denning, A.S.; Goulden, M.; Miller, S. &

Da Rocha, H.R. 2008. Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon:

reconciling models and observations. Journal Geophysical

Research, 113: 1-10.

Botta, A.; Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. 2002. Long-term variations

of climate and carbon fluxes over the Amazon basin. Geophysical

Research Letters, 29(9): 1319.

Box, G.E.P. & Cox, D.R. 1964. An analysis of transformations.

Journal of the Royal Statisistical Society, 26: 211-46.

Box, G. & Jenkins, G.M. 1976. Time series analysis. San Francisco,

Holden-Day. 575 p.

Carvalho, L.M.V.; Jones, C. & Liebmann, B. 2004. The South Atlantic

convergence zone: Intensity, form, persistence, and

relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and

extreme rainfall. Journal of Climate, 17: 88–108.

Chen, M. & Xie, P. 2008. CPC Unified Gauge-based Analysis of

Global Daily Precipitation. In: WESTERN PACIFIC GEOPHYSICS

MEETING, Cairns, Australia, 2008.

Costa, M.H. & Foley, J.A. 1999. Trends in the hydrologic cycle of

the Amazon basin. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104:

-14198.

Da Rocha, R.P.; Morales, C.A.; Cuadra, S.V. & Ambrizzi, T. 2009.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment

over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate

Model version 3 simulations. Journal of Geophysical

Research, 114: 1-19.

David, M.; Walko, R.L. & Avissar, R. 2011. Effects of Deforestation

on Spatiotemporal Distributions of Precipitation in South

America. Journal of Climate, 24: 2147-2163.

El-Masri, B.; Barman, R.; Meiyappan, P.; Song, Y.; Liang, M.; &

Jain, A. K. 2013. Carbon dynamics in the Amazonian Basin:

Integration of eddy covariance and ecophysiological

data with a land surface model. Agricultural and Forest

Meteorology, 182-183: 156–167.

Foley, J.A.; Botta, A.; Coe, M.T. & Costa, M.H. 2002. El Niño–

Southern Oscillation and the climate, ecosystems and rivers

of Amazonia. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 16(4): 1132.

Houghton, J.T.; Meira Filho, L.G.; Callander, B.A.; Harris, N. &

Kattenberg, A. 1996. Climate change 1995: the science

of climate change. Cambridge, Cambridge University

Press. 584 p.

Huang, B.; Banzon, V.F.; Freeman, E.; Lawrimore, J.; Liu, W.; Peterson,

T.C.; Smith, T.M.; Thorne, P.W.; Woodruff, S.D. &

Zhang, H. 2015. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature

version 4 (ERSST.v4), Part I. Upgrades and Intercomparisons.

Journal of Climate, 28: 911–930.

Levene, H. 1960. Robust Test for Equality of Variances, In: OLKIN,

I. (ed.). Contributions to Probability and Statistics: Essays

in Honor of Harold Hotteling. Stanford University Press,

p. 278–292.

Lúcio, P.S.; Silva, F.D.S.; Fortes, L.T.G.; Santos, L.A.R.; Ferreira,

D.B.; Salvador, M.A.; Balbino, H.T.; Sarmanho, G.F.; Santos,

L.S.F.C.; Lucas, E.W.M.; Barbosa, T.F. & Dias, P.L.S.

A combined stochastic model for seasonal prediction

of precipitation in Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia,

(1): 70 – 87.

Marengo J.A. 2004. Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall

across the Amazon basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,

: 79–96.

Marengo, J.A.; Nobre, C.A.; Tomasella, J.; Oyama, M.; Sampaio,

G.; Camargo, H. & Alves, L. 2008. The Drought of Amazonia

in 2005. Journal of Climate, 21(3): 495-516.

Marengo J.A. & Nobre C.A. 2009. Clima na Região Amazônica.

In: CAVALCANTI, I.F.A.; FERREIRA, N.J.; DA SILVA,

M.G.A.J. & SILVA DIAS, M.A.F. (ed.). Tempo e Clima no

Brasil. Oficina de Textos, p. 197–212.

Marengo, J.A.; Liebmann, B.; Grimm, A.M.; Misra, V.; Silva Dias,

P.L.; Cavalcanti, I.F.A.; Carvalho, L.M.V.; Berbery, H.;

Ambrizzi, T.; Vera, C.S.; Saulo, A.C.; Nogues Paegle, J.;

Zipser, E.; Seth, A. & Alves, L.M. 2012. Recent developments

on the South American monsoon system. International

Journal Climatology, 32: 1–21.

Marengo, J.A.; Alves, L.M.; Soares, W.R.; Rodriguez, D.A.; Camargo,

H.; Riveros, M.P. & Pabló, A.D. 2013(a). Two Contrasting

Severe Seasonal Extremes in Tropical South America

in 2012: Flood in Amazonia and Drought in Northeast

Brazil. Journal of climate, 26: 9137–9154.

Marengo, J.A.; Borma, L.S.; Rodriguez, D.A.; Pinho, P.; Soares,

W.R. & Alves, L.M. 2013(b). Recent Extremes of Drought

and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation.

American Journal of Climate Change, 2: 87-96.

Mcguffie, K. & Henderson-Sellers, A. 2001. Forty years of numerical

climate modelling. International Journal of Climatology,

(9): 1067-1109.

Mello, C.R. & Silva, A.M. 2009. Modelagem estatística da precipitação

mensal e anual e no período seco para o estado de

Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e

Ambiental, 13(1): 68-74.

Nobre C.A. & Nobre A.D. 2002. O balanço de carbono da Amazônia

brasileira. Estudos Avançados, 45: 81-90.

Oyama, M.D. & Nobre, C.A. 2003. A new climate vegetation equilibrium

state for Tropical South America. Geophysical Research

Letters, 30(23): 2199.

Petersen, W.A.; Nesbitt, S.W.; Blakeslee, R.J.; Cifelli, R.; Hein, P. &

Rutledge, S.A. 2002. TRMM observations of intraseasonal

variability in convective regimes over the Amazon. Journal

of Climate, 15: 1278–1293.

Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; De Carvalho, C.R.; Genovese, V.B.; Torregrosa,

A.; Dungan, J.; Bobo, M. & Coughlan, J. 2001.

Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem

carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region. Journal

Geophysical Research, 106 (D10): 10423–10466.

Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Huete, A.; Genovese, V.; Bustamante, M.;

Ferreira, L.G.; De Oliveira Junior, R. & Zepp, R. 2009. Terrestrial

carbon sinks in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado

region predicted from MODIS satellite data and ecosystem

modeling. Biogeosciences Discussions, 6: 947–969.

Sakamoto, Y.; Ishiguro, M. & Kitagawa, G. 1986. Akaike Information

Criterion Statistics. New York, Springer Netherlands. 290 p.

Saleska, S.R.; Miller, S.D.; Matross, D.M.; Goulden, M.L.; Wofsy,

S.C.; Da Rocha, H.R.; De Camargo, P.B.; Crill, P.; Daube,

B.C.; De Freitas, H.C.; Hutyra, L.; Keller, M.; Kirchhoff,

V.; Menton, M.; Munger, J.W.; Pyle, E.H.; Rice, A.H. &

Silva H. 2003. Carbon in Amazon Forests: Unexpected

Seasonal Fluxes and Disturbance-Induced Losses. Science,

: 1554-1557.

Santos, E.B.; Lucio, P.S. & Santos E Silva, C.M. 2014. Precipitation

regionalization of the Brazilian Amazon. Atmospheric

Science Letters, 16: 185-192.

Santos, E.B.; Lucio, P.S. & Santos E Silva, C.M. 2015a. Seasonal

analysis of return periods for maximum daily precipitation

in the Brazilian Amazon. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16:

-984.

Santos, E.B.; Lucio, P. & Santos E Silva, C.M. 2015b. Análise de

tendência da precipitação diária na Amazônia Brasileira.

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, 8: 1041-1052.

Satyamurty, P.; Da Costa, C.P.W. & Manzi, A.O. 2013. Moisture

source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111(1-2): 195-209.

Sena, J.A.; Beser de Deus, L.A.; Freitas, M.A.V. & Costa, L. 2012.

Extreme events of droughts and floods in Amazonia: 2005

and 2009. Water Resources Management, 26: 1665–1676.

Shapiro, S.S. & Wilk, M.B. 1965. An analysis of variance test

for normality (complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3-4):

–611.

Soltani, S.; Modarres, R. & Eslamian, S.S. 2007. The use of time series

modelling for the determination of rainfall climates of

Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 27(6): 819–829.

Tian, H.Q.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich,

J.V.K.; Moore, B. & Vorosmarty, C.J. 1998. Effect of

interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian

ecosystems. Nature, 396: 664–667.

Vale, R.; Filizola, N.; Souza, R. & Schongart, J. 2011. A cheia de

na Amazônia Brasileira. Revista Brasileira de Geociências,

(4): 577–586.

Xie, P.; Yatagai. A.; Chen, M.; Hayasaka, T.; Fukushima, Y.; Liu,

C. & Yang, S. 2007. A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation

over East Asia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8:

-626.

Zhou, J. & Lau, K.M. 1998. Does a monsoon climate exist over

South America?. Journal of Climate, 11: 1020–1040.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.11137/2020_2_20_32

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

SCImago Journal & Country Rank
Associado Diadorim Associado Latindex ROAD ISSN REDIB ISSN Google Acadêmico DRJI DOAJ GeoRef Clarivate

ISSN 0101-9759 e-ISSN 1982-3908