Análise dos Eventos Extremos de Precipitação sobre a Amazônia em Modelos Climáticos de Alta Resolução - Parte I: Variabilidade Interanual

Maria de Souza Custodio, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Jeferson Prietsch Machado

Abstract


O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho das simulações acopladas e atmosféricas dos modelos da família HadGEM1.2 em capturar o sinal da variabilidade interanual (IA) dos eventos extremos de precipitação sobre a região da Amazônia. As séries temporais de precipitação foram filtradas na escala interanual usando a transformada rápida de Fourier e os extremos foram calculados utilizando a técnica dos percentis. A análise das composições das anomalias interanuais de precipitação no verão e inverno austral, em geral, mostra que as simulações acopladas e atmosféricas representam satisfatoriamente o padrão espacial desses eventos. Para os extremos secos, o padrão espacial das simulações foi muito semelhante. De uma forma geral, o padrão espacial das simulações apresenta menor viés no extremo chuvoso. A análise dos limiares de extremos secos e úmidos mostra que, tanto na Amazônia Norte (AMN) como na Amazônia (AMZ), as simulações representam o sinal da escala IA, com destaque para a região AMZ onde o viés em relação ao CMAP (ClimatePrediction Center – Merged Analysis of Precipitation) é menor. Embora apresentando diferenças, tanto as simulações acopladas como as atmosféricas, apresentam padrão semelhante e portanto, representam o sinal da escala interanual nos subdomínios da Amazônia aqui analisados.


Keywords


Extremos; Precipitação; Amazônia

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11137/2020_4_350_363

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