A Nowcasting System for Hydrometeorological Hazard Assessment of Landslides and Flooding – Part 2: On Verification and Validation Process

Abstract

This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the verification and evaluation of a system designed for forecasting hydrometeorological risks, with a specific focus on landslides and floods in a defined region. The proposed system continuously integrates real-time meteorological and hydrological data to provide precise and timely information on potential risk events. Through a meticulously conducted case study, the practical application of the system is highlighted, demonstrating its effectiveness in monitoring and forecasting risk events in real-world scenarios. The work addresses fundamental challenges associated with the validation of complex systems, emphasizing the imperative need for robust verification and validation methods. Furthermore, the unique characteristics of complex systems are discussed, and their implications for effective modeling and validation processes are elucidated. A detailed presentation of the benchmark case study results includes analyses of rainfall intensity, dynamic mapping of landslide susceptibility, river height monitoring, and forecast comparisons. These findings are complemented by visual aids in a web interface that facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the system’s performance under real conditions. Key insights are emphasized, highlighting the crucial role of the proposed system in advancing knowledge in the field of hydrometeorological risk assessment and forecasting. The conclusions succinctly summarize the main results and underscore the critical importance of systems like the proposed one in mitigating these risks.