Avaliação de Indicadores Atmosféricos Utilizando o Modelo Numérico WRF em Eventos de Chuva na Cidade do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

The improvement in the forecast of extreme rainfall events contributes significantly the effectiveness of environmental monitoring performed routinely by operational centers. Therefore, in this study it was aimed to evaluate the performance of atmospheric indicators in rain events that occurred in the city of Rio de Janeiro, between 1997-2012, in order to identify which of them have higher reliability in identifying the favorable weather characteristics to the occurrence of severe rainfall. Using outputs from WRF model, thresholds were established for each of the atmospheric indicators analyzed in this paper, as well as the calculation of the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) of these indicators for days occurrence of severe rainfall and the days there was the presence of the same weather systems giving rise to severe rain events, but, however, these did not occur. With POD and RAF values obtained, we also sought to determine the most efficient indicators in the characterization of different atmospheric conditions between rainfall events analyzed. The results showed that the divergence of the wind in 300 hPa, specific humidity at 850 hPa, total energy of severe storm and precipitable water were the most efficient indicators in the identification of favorable atmospheric condition to the occurrence of severe rainfall in Rio de Janeiro the study period.