Estimation of the El Niño/La Niña Impact in the Intensity of Brazilian Northeastern Winds

Authors

  • Carolina Nascimento Nogueira Lima Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio); Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica
  • Cristiano Augusto Coelho Fernandes Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio); Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica
  • Gutemberg Borges França Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ); Departamento de Meteorologia; Laboratório de Meteorologia Aplicada (LMA)
  • Gilson Gonçalves de Matos Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11137/2014_2_232_240

Keywords:

Wind Power, El Niño/La Niña, GAS models.

Abstract

Wind energy is now one of the most promising energy sources of the world for being clean and abundant. The study of phenomena that are related to changes in atmospheric circulation, such as El Niño, are extremely important for its ability to affect wind generation. In order to explore the possible effect of such phenomena in the winds of the Northeast region of Brazil, a statistical analysis to quantify this effect through the model Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) is performed. This allows the modeling of time series for different probability distributions. Thus, the GAS is applied to the wind speed series from the Gamma distribution. The model results showed that El Niño has influence on the behavior of the wind, even though it is small in magnitude.

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Published

2017-02-15

Issue

Vol. 37 No. 2 (2014)

Section

Article

License

This journal is licensed under a Creative Commons — Attribution 4.0 International — CC BY 4.0, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.