Selective contestation or systemic war? Satisfaction, capabilities, and the sino- american power transition

Resumo

When does a power transition lead to war? According to Power Transition Theory (PTT), the outcome depends not only on material capabilities, but also on the rising power’s degree of satisfaction with the prevailing order. This article extends PTT by proposing a two- dimensional model that disaggregates satisfaction and capabilities for each actor, introducing transitional friction as the causal mechanism driving systemic war. Applying this framework to the US-China transition, we measure the relative capabilities of both powers and evaluate, by the content analysis methodology, Chinese satisfaction through its UN General Assembly speeches (2001-2024), categorizing textual passages according to topics, orientation toward the order and discursive action. The findings reveal that China adopts a rule-shaping without systemic rejection posture, that is, a moderate and reformist foreign policy, avoiding either subversive/revisionist or conservative stances and pointing toward competitive coexistence rather than systemic conflict.

Keywords: China; United States; Systemic War; Global Order; Power Transition.