What can be expected from Brazilian agro-industrial exports in the context of maturing Chinese food markets?

Abstract

Chinese growth has driven a remarkable increase in Brazilian agro-industrial exports, especially soybeans. Revisiting and updating the study by Santos, Batalha, and Pinho (2012), this article analyzes the evolution of Chinese food consumption. We outline a quantitative overview of agricultural demand and trade, assessing the repercussions for Brazilian agriculture of the changes in China’s consumption profile in the country. We found that, in the last decade, none of the main food groups fell into the most desirable categories in terms of potential growth in food consumption: acceleration of diffusion or, at least, recovery. Even the best performing groups, such as meat and fruit, showed a slight growth, below rates previously observed. The conclusions point out that, given the maturation of many food markets in China, it was essentially the exceptional performance of soybean sales that sustained the continued accelerated expansion of Brazilian agro-industrial exports. On this basis, we investigate the conditions for a long-term continuation of the dynamism shown by Brazilian agribusiness at the beginning of this century.