Simulação Numérica Regional para a Temperatura do Ar no Continente Antártico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2021_44_36417Keywords:
Temperatura do ar, Modelo WRF, Região polarAbstract
Este estudo investiga a temperatura do ar no continente Antártico usando o modelo WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) versão 3.6.1. Para avaliar o desempenho do WRF são analisadas 29 estações meteorológicas, sendo 24 localizadas próximas à costa e 5 no interior do continente, para o período de 1999 a 2018. Em regiões de topografia complexa e de altitude acima de 1450 metros, o WRF apresentou dificuldade em estimar os valores das temperaturas máximas e mínimas. Observou-se uma superestimativa da temperatura mínima, possivelmente devido à dificuldade do WRF em estimar adequadamente a umidade da atmosfera. A camada espessa de neve faz com que o modelo subestime o fluxo de calor do solo, deixando muita energia na superfície que causa um aumento das temperaturas simuladas. O ciclo da temperatura é razoavelmente simulado na maioria das estações, com correlações entre 0,61 a 0,87. Em geral, as simulações com o WRF concordam razoavelmente com as observações, com desvio padrão entre 0,7 e 1,3°C para as estações localizadas entre 180°W a 90°E. Enquanto na região entre 90°E e 180°E, os desvios variam entre 0,6 e 1,4°C. Os resultados mostram, em geral, que as simulações com o WRF podem ser adotadas para preencher a inexistência de dados observados.
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