The Prediction of Future Behavior: The Empty Promises of Expert Clinical and Actuarial Testimony
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21875/tjc.v1i1.3284Palavras-chave:
Behavior Prediction, Clinical Testimony, Actuarial Testimony, Risk Assessment, Mental Illness, Predição do comportamento, Perícia clínica, Perícia atuarial, Avaliação de risco, Doença mentalResumo
ABSTRACT: Testimony about the future dangerousness of a person has become a central staple of many judicial processes. In settings such as bail, sentencing, and parole decisions, in rulings about the civil confinement of the mentally ill, and in custody decisions in a context of domestic violence, the assessment of a person's propensity towards physical or sexual violence is regarded as a deciding factor. These assessments can be based on two forms of expert testimony: actuarial or clinical. The purpose of this paper is to examine the scientific and epistemological basis of both methods of prediction or risk assessment. My analysis will reveal that this kind of expert testimony is scientifically baseless. The problems I will discuss will generate a dilemma for factfinders: on the one hand, given the weak predictive abilities of the branches of science involved, they should not admit expert clinical or actuarial testimony as evidence; on the other hand, there is a very strong tradition and a vast jurisprudence that supports the continued use of this kind of expert testimony. It is a clear case of the not so uncommon conflict between science and legal tradition.
RESUMO: O testemunho sobre a periculosidade futura de uma pessoa tem sido uma marca central de muitos processos judiciais. Em contextos tais como pagamento de fiança, proferimento de sentença e decisões sobre liberdade condicional, confinamento civil do doente mental e costódia em casos de violência doméstica, a avaliação da propensão de uma pessoa à violência física ou sexual é considerada um fator fundamental. Essas avaliações podem ser baseadas em duas formas de perícia: atuarial ou clínica. O propósito deste artigo é examinar a base científica e epistemológica de ambos os métodos de predição ou de avaliação de risco. Minha análise revelará que este tipo de perícia não possui fundamento. Os problemas que serão discutidos gerarão um dilema para os investigadores dos fatos no processo judicial: por um lado, dadas as habilidades preditivas fracas dos ramos da ciência envolvidos, não deveriam admitir a perícia atuarial e clínica como meios de prova; por outro lado, há uma tradição muito forte e uma vasta jurisprudência que dá suporte ao uso contínuo deste tipo de prova pericial. Este é um caso claro do não tão incomum conflito entre a ciência e a tradição jurídica.
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