Projeções Climáticas de Temperatura do Ar e Precipitação para o Estado de São Paulo Utilizando o Modelo Regional RegCM4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2021_44_39850Keywords:
Estado de São Paulo, Extremos climáticos, Mudanças climáticasAbstract
Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar mudanças nos valores de precipitação e temperatura médios sobre o estado de São Paulo (Brasil) e em três índices de extremos climáticos (dias secos consecutivos – CDD, extremos chuvosos – R95p e duração de ondas de calor – HWD), entre o período presente e o final do século XXI, a partir de um modelo climático regional. Foram utilizadas três simulações/projeções do Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) para o clima presente (1995-2014) e futuro (2080-2100), e a análise foi dividida nas estações de verão (DJF) e inverno (JJA). As simulações consideram o cenário mais pessimista de concentração de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera do IPCC (RCP8.5). Dados observados do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) são utilizados para analisar a destreza das simulações no clima presente da precipitação e da temperatura do ar. No verão, as simulações superestimam a precipitação no litoral, enquanto no inverno a representam mais próxima do observado. Para a temperatura do ar, há subestimativas no litoral sul para ambas as estações do ano. No interior do estado, as temperaturas simuladas no verão são próximas ao observado, já no inverno observa-se superestimativa desta variável. Em relação aos índices climáticos, é observada pouca mudança do CDD para o verão, e um aumento para o inverno, principalmente do interior do estado, enquanto o R95p mostra sinal oposto ao CDD. O HWD apresenta uma diminuição em DJF no interior e um aumento na região litorânea para JJA. O interior de São Paulo é identificado como a região mais suscetível aos dias secos consecutivos e extremos chuvosos, enquanto as ondas de calor apresentam um sinal de aumento mais relevante no sul e faixa leste do estado, durante o inverno.
References
Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., da Rocha, R.P. & Llopart, M. 2019, ‘The State of The Art and Fundamental Aspects of Regional Climate Modeling in South America’, Annals of The New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1436, no. 1, pp. 98-120. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13932
Arrhenius, S. 1897, ‘On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in The Air Upon the Temperature of The Ground’, The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, vol. 41, no. 251, pp. 237-276. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786449608620846
Ashfaq, M., Cavazos, T., Reboita, M.S., Torres-Alavez, J.A., Im, E.S., Olusegun, C.F., Alves, L., Key, K., Adeniyi, M.O., Tall, M., Sylla, M.B., Mehmood, S., Zafar, Q., Das, S., Diallo, I., Coppola, E. & Giorgi, F. 2020, ‘Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations’, Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J.B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I.A., Hoose, C. & Kristjansson, J.E. 2013, ‘The Norwegian Earth System Model, Noresm1-M—Part 1: Description and Basic Evaluation of The Physical Climate’, Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 6, no.3, pp. 687-720. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013
Blázquez, J. & Silvina, A.S. 2020, ‘Multiscale Precipitation Variability and Extremes Over South America: Analysis of Future Changes from a Set of Cordex Regional Climate Model Simulations’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 55, no.7, pp. 2089-2106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05370-8
Bozkurt, D., Rojas, M., Boisier, J.P., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R. & Gallardo, L. 2019, ‘Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: present climate conditions and added value analysis’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 53, no.11, pp. 6745-6767. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y
Carvalho, L.M.V., Jones, C. & Liebmann, B. 2002, ‘Extreme precipitation events in Southeastern South America and large-scale convective patterns in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone’, Journal of Climate, vol. 15, no. 17, pp. 2377-2394. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2377:EPEISS>2.0.CO,2
Cavalcanti, I.F.A. & Shimizu, M.H. 2012, ‘Climate Fields over South America and Variability of SACZ and PSA in Hadgem2-ES’, American Journal of Climate Change, vol. 01, no. 03, pp. 132-144. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2012.13011
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V.B., Kousky, V.E., Wayne Higgins, R. & Janowiak, J.E. 2008, ‘Assessing Objective Techniques for Gauge‐Based Analyses of Global Daily Precipitation’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 113, no. D4, pp. 4110. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132
Coelho, C.A.S, Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S, Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custodio, M.S., Dutra, L.M., da Rocha, R.P. & Rehbein, A. 2016, ‘The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, no. 11, pp. 3737-3752. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2800-1.
Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Raffaele, F., Fuentes-Franco, R., Giuliani, G., Llopart, M., Mamgain, A., Mariotti, L., Diro, G.T. & Torma, C. 2014, ‘Present and Future Climatologies in the Phase I Crema Experiment’, Climatic Change, vol. 125, no. 1, pp. 23-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9
Dereczynski, C., Chou, S.C., Lyra, A., Sondermann, M., Regoto, P., Tavares, P., Chagas, D., Gomes, J.L., Rodrigues, D.C. & Skansi, M.M. 2020, ‘Downscaling of climate extremes over South America–Part I: Model evaluation in the reference climate’, Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 29, pp. 100273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100273
Dereczynski, C., Silva, W.L. & Marengo, J. 2013, ‘Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’, American Journal of Climate Change, vol. 2, pp. 25-33. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2013.21003
Dunn, R.J., Alexander, L.V., Donat, M.G., Zhang, X., Bador, M., Herold, N., Lippmann, T., Allan, R., Aguilar, E., Barry, A., Brunet, M., Caesar, J., Chagnaud, G., Cheng, V., Cinco, T., Durre, I., de Guzman, R., Htay, T., Wan Ibadullah, W., Bin Ibrahim, M., Khoshkam, M., Kruger, A., Kubota, H., Leng, T., Lim, G., Li-Sha, L., Marengo, J., Mbatha, S., McGree, S., Menne, M., Skansi, M., Ngwenya, S., Nkrumah, F., Oonariya, C., Pabon-Caicedo, J., Panthou, G., Pham, C., Rahimzadeh, F., Ramos, A., Salgado, E., Salinger, J., Sané, Y., Sopaheluwakan, A., Srivastava, A., Sun, Y., Timbal, B., Trachow, N., Trewin, B., van der Schrier, G., Vazquez-Aguirre, J., Vasquez, R., Villarroel, C., Vincent, L., Vischel, T., Vose, R. & Yussof, M. 2020, ‘Development of An Updated Global Land in Situ‐Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Hadex3’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 125, no. 16, pp. e2019JD032263. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032263
Escobar, G.C.J., Reboita, M.S. & Souza, A. 2019, ‘Climatology of Surface Baroclinic Zones in The Coast of Brazil’, Atmósfera, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 129-141. https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.2019.32.02.04
Farinosi, F., Dosio, A., Calliari, E., Seliger, R., Alfieri, L. & Naumann, G. 2020, ‘Will the Paris Agreement Protect us from Hydro-Meteorological Extremes?’, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, no. 10, pp. 104037. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba869
Feron, S., Cordero, R.R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P.J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe F., Carrasco, J. & Torres, G. 2019, ‘Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America’, Scientific reports, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4
Garreaud, R.D., Vuille, M., Compagnucci, R. & Marengo, J. 2009, ‘Present-Day South American Climate’, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, vol. 281, no. 3-4, pp. 180-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.10.032
Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Müller, W., Notz, D., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Roeckner, E., Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J. & Stevens, B. 2012, ‘CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI-ESM-LR model: the RCP8.5 experiment, served by ESGF’, World Data Center for Climate. https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MXELr8
Giorgi, F. 2019, ‘Thirty years of regional climate modeling: where are we and where are we going next?’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 124, no. 11, pp. 5696-5723. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030094
Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Raffaele, F., Diro, G.T., Fuentes-Franco, R., Giuliani, G., Mamgain A., Llopart, M.P., Mariotti, L. & Torma, C. 2014, ‘Changes in Extremes and Hydroclimatic Regimes in the Crema Ensemble Projections’, Climatic Change, vol. 125, no. 1, pp. 39-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1117-0
Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Solmon, F., Mariotti, L., Sylla, M.B., Bi, X., Elguindi, N., Diro, G.T., Nair, V., Giuliani, G., Turuncoglu, U.U., Cozzini, S., Guttler, I., O’Brien, T.A., Tawfik, A.B., Shalaby, A., Zakey, A.S., Steiner, A.L., Stordal, F., Sloan, L.C. & Brankovic, C. 2012, ‘Regcm4: Model Description and Preliminary Tests Over Multiple Cordex Domains’, Climate Research, vol. 52, pp. 7-29. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01018
Giorgi, F., Jones, C. & Asrar, G.R. 2009, ‘Addressing Climate Information Needs at The Regional Level: The CORDEX Framework’, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin, vol. 58, no. 3, pp. 175-183.
Giorgi, F. & Mearns, L.O. 1999, ‘Introduction to special section: Regional climate modeling revisited’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 104, no. D6, pp. 6335-6352. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD02072
Gozzo, L.F., Palma, D.S., Custodio, M.S. & Machado, J.P. 2019, ‘Climatology and Trend of Severe Drought Events in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, During the 20th Century’, Atmosphere, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10040190
Gutowski, W.J., Giorgi, F., Timbal, B., Frigon, A., Jacob, D., Kang, H.S., Raghavan, K, Lee, B., Lennard, C., Nikulin, G., O’Rourke, E., Rixen, M., Solman, S.A., Stephenson, T. & Tangang, F. 2016, ‘WCRP coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6’ Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 4087-4095. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016
Hong, S.Y. & Kanamitsu, M. 2014, ‘Dynamical downscaling: Fundamental issues from an NWP point of view and recommendations’, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0029-2
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística 2010, Produto Interno Bruto, acesso em 15 de dezembro de 2020, <http://censo2010.ibge.gov.br>.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – Working Group I, Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Brussels, Belgium.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jones, C.D., Hughes, J.K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S.C., Jones, G.S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F.M., Andres, R.J., Bell, C., Boo, K.-O., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, K.D., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gornall, J., Gray, L., Halloran, P.R., Hurtt, G., Ingram, W.J., Lamarque, J.-F., Law, R.M., Meinshausen, M., Osprey, S., Palin, E.J., Parsons Chini, L., Raddatz, T., Sanderson, M.G., Sellar, A.A., Schurer, A., Valdes, P., Wood, N., Woodward, S., Yoshioka, M., & Zerroukat, M. 2011, ‘The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations’, Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 04, no. 3, pp. 543-570. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011.
Kain, J.S. & Fritsch, J.M. 1990, ‘A One-Dimensional Entraining/Detraining Plume Model and Its Application in Convective Parameterization’, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 47, no. 23, p.. 2784-2802. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO,2
Llopart, M., Domingues, L.M., Torma, C., Giorgi, F., da Rocha, R.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Alves, L.M., Coppola, E., Silva, M.L. & Souza, D.O. 2020, ‘Assessing Changes in The Atmospheric Water Budget as Drivers for Precipitation Change Over Two Cordex-Core Domains’, Climate Dynamics. https://doi.Org/10.1007/S00382-020-05539-1
Llopart, M., Reboita, M.S. & da Rocha, R.P. 2020, ‘Assessment of Multi-Model Climate Projections of Water Resources Over South America Cordex Domain’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 99-116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04990-z
Llopart, M., Reboita, M.S., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Da Rocha, R.P. & De Souza, D.O. 2018, ‘Land use change over the Amazon Forest and its impact on the local climate’, Water, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 149. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020149
Luiz-Silva, W., Oscar-Júnior, A.C., Cavalcanti, I.F.A. & Treistman, F. 2020, ‘An overview of precipitation climatology in Brazil: space-time variability of frequency and intensity associated with atmospheric systems’, Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 289-308. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1863969
Lyra, A., Tavares, P., Chou, S.C., Sueiro, G., Dereczynski, C., Sondermann, M., Silva, A., Marengo, J. & Giarolla, A. 2018, ‘Climate Change Projections Over Three Metropolitan Regions in Southeast Brazil Using the Non-Hydrostatic Eta Regional Climate Model At 5-Km Resolution’, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 132, no. 1, pp. 663-682. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z
Marengo, J.A. & Alves, L.M. 2005, ‘Tendências hidrológicas da bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul’, Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 215-226.
Marengo, J.A., Alves, L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Young, A., Barreto, N.J. & Ramos, A.M. 2020, ‘Trends in extreme rainfall and hydrogeometeorological disasters in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: a review’, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1472, no. 1, pp. 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14307
Marengo, J.A., Liebmann, B., Grimm, A.M., Misra, V., Silva Dias, P.L., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., Carvalho, L.M.V., Berbery, E.H., Ambrizzi, T., Vera, C., Saulo, C., Nogues-Paugle, J., Zipser, E., Seth, A. & Alves, L.M. 2012, ‘Review recent developments on the South American monsoon system’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2254
Marengo, J.A., Soares, W.R., Saulo, C. & Nicolini, M. 2004, ‘Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses: Characteristics and temporal variability’, Journal of Climate, vol. 17, no. 12, pp. 2261-2280. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2261:COTLJE>2.0.CO,2
Marrafon, V.H. & Reboita, M.S. 2020, ‘Características da Precipitação na América do Sul Reveladas através de Índices Climáticos’, Revista Brasileira De Climatologia, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 663-676. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v26i0.72181
Meehl, G.A. & Bony, S. 2011, ‘Introduction to CMIP5’, Clivar Exchanges, vol. 16, no. 56, pp. 4- 5.
Montini, T.L., Jones, C. & Carvalho, L.M. 2019, ‘The South American low‐level jet: a new climatology, variability, and changes’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 124, no. 3, pp. 1200-1218. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029634
Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A., Manning, M.R., Rose, S.K.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; Meehl, G.A.; Mitchell, J.F.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S.J.; Stouffer, R.J.; Thomson, A.M.; Weyant, J.P. & Wilbanks, T.J. 2010, ‘The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment’, Nature, vol. 463, no. 7282, pp. 747-756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
Nunez, M.N.; Solman, S.A. & Cabré, M.F. 2009, ‘Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. II: Climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 32, no. 7, pp. 1081-1095. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0449-8
Oleson, K.W., Lawrence, D.M., Bonan, G.B., Drewniak, B., Huang, M., Koven, C.D., Levis, S., Li, F., Riley, W.J., Subin, Z.M., Swenson, S.C., Thornton, P.E., Bozbiyik, A., Fisher, R.A., Heald, C.L., Kluzek, E., Lamarque, J.F., Lawrence, P.J., Leung, L.R., Lipscomb, W., Muszala, S., Ricciuto, D.M., Sacks, W.J., Sun, Y., Tang, J., & Yang, Z.L. 2013, Technical Description of Version 4.5 Of the Community Land Model (CLM), NCAR Technical Note no. 503, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RR1W7M
Oliveira Silva, M.C. & Valverde, M.C. 2017, ‘Cenário futuro da disponibilidade hídrica na bacia do Alto Tietê’ Brazilian Journal of Environmental Sciences (Online), vol. 43, pp. 114-130. https://doi.org/10.5327/Z2176-947820170185
Önol, B. 2012, ‘Effects of coastal topography on climate: high-resolution simulation with a regional climate model’, Climate Research, 52, pp. 159-174. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01077
Peron, B., Llopart, M. & Reboita, M. 2016, ‘Classificação Climática De Koppen-Geiger através de Simulações e Projeções Climáticas Para Bauru-SP’, Artigo apresentado no XIX Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, João Pessoa, 7-11 Novembro.
Reboita, M.S., Gan, M.A., da Rocha, R.P. & Ambrizzi, T. 2010, ‘Regimes De Precipitação na América do Sul: Uma Revisão Bibliográfica’, Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 185-204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862010000200004
Reboita, M.S., Marietto, D.M.G., Souza, A. & Barbosa, M. 2017, ‘Caracterização atmosférica quando da ocorrência de eventos extremos de chuva na região sul de Minas Gerais’, Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, vol. 21, pp. 20-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v21i0.47577
Reboita, M.S., Reale, M., da Rocha, R.P., Giorgi, F., Giuliani, G., Coppola, E., Nino, R., Llopart, M., Torres, J.A. & Cavazos, T. 2020, ‘Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach’, Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
Santos, D.F. & Reboita, M.S. 2018, ‘Jatos de baixos níveis a leste dos Andes: comparação entre duas reanálises’, Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, vol. 22, pp. 423-445. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.47595
Seneviratne, S., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Reichstein, M. Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., Zhang, X., Alexander, L.V., Allen, S., Benito, G., Cavazos, T., Clague, J., Conway, D., Della-Marta, P.M., Gerber, M., Gong, S., Goswami, B.N., Hemer, M., Huggel, C., van den Hurk, B., Kharin, V.V., Kitoh, A., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Li, G., Mason, S.J., McGuire, W., van Oldenborgh, G., Orlowsky, B., Smith, S., Thiaw, W., Velegrakis, A., Yiou, P., Zhang, T., Zhou, T. & Zwiers, F.W. 2012, ‘Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment’ in C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor & P.M. Midgley (eds.), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 109-230. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-6nbt-s431
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V.V., Zwiers, F.W., Zhang, X. & Bronaugh, D. 2013, ‘Climate Extremes Indices in The CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: Part 1. Model Evaluation in The Present Climate’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 118, n. 4, pp. 1716-1733. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203
Silva, P.E., Santos e Silva, C.M., Spyrides, M.H.C. & Andrade, L.D.M.B. 2019, ‘Precipitation and air temperature extremes in the Amazon and northeast Brazil’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 579-595. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5829
Tiedtke, M. 1996, ‘An Extension of Cloud-Radiation Parameterization in The ECMWF Model: The Representation of Subgrid-Scale Variations of Optical Depth’, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 124, no. 4, pp. 745-750. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0745:AEOCRP>2.0.CO,2
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J.T. & Shepherd, T.G. 2015, ‘Attribution of Climate Extreme Events’, Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 8, pp. 725-730. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Matsui, T., Hurtt, G., Lamarque, J.F., Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Grainer, C., Rose, S., Hibbard, K.A., Nakicenovic, N., Krey, V. & Kram, T. 2011, ‘The representative concentration pathways: an overview’, Climatic Change, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 5-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Vera, C., Higgins, W., Amador, J., Ambrizzi, T., Garreaud, R., Gochis, D., Gutzler, D., Lettenmaier, D., Marengo, J., Mechoso, C.R. & Nogues-Paegle, J. 2006, ‘Toward A Unified View of The American Monsoon Systems’, Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 20, pp. 4977-5000. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3896.1
Wilks, D.S. 2006, Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic Press, San Diego.
Zhou, J. & Lau, K.M. 1998, ‘Does a monsoon climate exist over South America?’, Journal of climate, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 1020-1040. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1020:DAMCEO>2.0.CO,2
Zilli, M.T., Carvalho, L.M., Liebmann, B. & Silva, M.A. 2017, ‘A Comprehensive Analysis of Trends in Extreme Precipitation Over Southeastern Coast of Brazil’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 2269-2279. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4840
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
Issue
Section
License
This journal is licensed under a Creative Commons — Attribution 4.0 International — CC BY 4.0, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Except where otherwise noted, content on this site is licensed under a license 