Projeções Climáticas de Temperatura do Ar e Precipitação para o Estado de São Paulo Utilizando o Modelo Regional RegCM4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2021_44_39850Keywords:
Estado de São Paulo, Extremos climáticos, Mudanças climáticasAbstract
Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar mudanças nos valores de precipitação e temperatura médios sobre o estado de São Paulo (Brasil) e em três índices de extremos climáticos (dias secos consecutivos – CDD, extremos chuvosos – R95p e duração de ondas de calor – HWD), entre o período presente e o final do século XXI, a partir de um modelo climático regional. Foram utilizadas três simulações/projeções do Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) para o clima presente (1995-2014) e futuro (2080-2100), e a análise foi dividida nas estações de verão (DJF) e inverno (JJA). As simulações consideram o cenário mais pessimista de concentração de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera do IPCC (RCP8.5). Dados observados do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) são utilizados para analisar a destreza das simulações no clima presente da precipitação e da temperatura do ar. No verão, as simulações superestimam a precipitação no litoral, enquanto no inverno a representam mais próxima do observado. Para a temperatura do ar, há subestimativas no litoral sul para ambas as estações do ano. No interior do estado, as temperaturas simuladas no verão são próximas ao observado, já no inverno observa-se superestimativa desta variável. Em relação aos índices climáticos, é observada pouca mudança do CDD para o verão, e um aumento para o inverno, principalmente do interior do estado, enquanto o R95p mostra sinal oposto ao CDD. O HWD apresenta uma diminuição em DJF no interior e um aumento na região litorânea para JJA. O interior de São Paulo é identificado como a região mais suscetível aos dias secos consecutivos e extremos chuvosos, enquanto as ondas de calor apresentam um sinal de aumento mais relevante no sul e faixa leste do estado, durante o inverno.
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