Climatologia do Índice do Potencial de Gênese de Ciclones Tropicais nos Oceanos Adjacentes à América do Sul
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2021_44_39515Palavras-chave:
Índice do Potencial de Gênese, Ciclone Tropical, ClimatologiaResumo
Os oceanos tropicais/subtropicais adjacentes à América do Sul não são climatologicamente propícios à formação de ciclones tropicais de acordo com a literatura. Entretanto, desde 2004 já foram registrados dois ciclones tropicais no oceano Atlântico sudoeste e um subtropical que teve potencial para se tornar tropical. Locais propícios à gênese de ciclones tropicais podem ser identificados através do índice do potencial de gênese, que é uma metodologia desenvolvida pelo Dr. Kerry Emanuel e colaboradores. Diante disso, o objetivo do estudo é contribuir com o conhecimento climatológico de regiões propícias à gênese de ciclones tropicais nas cercanias da América do Sul usando o índice do potencial de gênese, bem como de outras variáveis atmosféricas e oceânicas importantes para a ciclogênese. Para tanto, são utilizados dados do período de 1989 a 2019 da reanálise ERA5, que é considerada estado-da-arte em termos de reanálise. Os resultados apresentam a climatologia do índice do potencial de gênese bem como dos componentes desse índice e de outras variáveis atmosféricas e oceânicas que são importantes para o desenvolvimento de sistemas tropicais. O principal resultado obtido no estudo é a presença de potencial para a gênese de sistemas tropicais no oceano Atlântico ao longo da costa brasileira. Em outubro, surge um sinal fraco entre a costa da Bahia e Espírito Santo. Esse sinal se intensifica atingindo máxima intensidade entre fevereiro e março, quando também alcança a costa sul do Brasil. Portanto, a utilização de uma metodologia robusta aplicada em dados estado-da-arte desmistifica a hipótese da não existência de potencial para a gênese de ciclones tropicais na costa do Brasil.
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