The Contribuition of Tourism in the Land Use and Land Cover Change in Angra dos Reis, Paraty and Ubatuba Cities – an Analysis from Spatial Modeling

Abstract

This work aims to simulate the change in land cover and use in Angra dos Reis, Paraty and Ubatuba cities between 2016 and 2021, seeking to identify the relationship of
tourist variables in the transition of land cover and use. For that, was used spatial dynamics modeling using cellular automata. The result of the simulation showed that tourism variables influence urban sprawl, with greater probability of growth in central and peripheral areas with tourist appeal. Also noteworthy is the transition from forest to urban areas, which occurs close to areas of high density of accommodation, and to a lesser extent close to tourist attractions. Although this transition occurs in a lower percentage, due to the conservation units, the loss of vegetation for long-term civil construction is worrying, in view of the “tourist” investments directed to the region and the relaxation of environmental laws.